How long can Murray hold onto his No. 1 ranking?

Andy Murray has been ranked No. 1 for 32 weeks after an amazing 2016 surge saw him win his third major at Wimbledon and wrap up the year with five titles in a row.

Things have soured in 2017, and despite an encouraging run to the French Open semifinals, the Scot is likely to lose the top spot in the coming months largely in part because he has much to defend, while world No. 2 -ranked Rafael Nadal does not.

“It’s most likely that I’ll lose the No 1 spot,” he said in *The Scotsman*. “If you want to stay at No 1 you can’t have periods of three months of the year where you’re not winning matches, not performing well in the big events, which was the case for me until the French Open.

“So more than likely that will happen and that’s fine. I’m not trying to win Wimbledon for the ranking points—I want to win Wimbledon, that’s my goal.”

Murray’s 9,890 points looks like a comfortable margin over French Open champion Nadal’s 7,285 points, but he has to defend 500 points for his Queen’s Club title, and then 2,000 points at Wimbledon. He will need to defend a whopping 7,960 points for the remainder of 2017.

Meanwhile, Nadal has only to defend 370 points the rest of the year. Last year, he pulled out of the French Open, and then played just four ranking-point events. He just withdrew from Queen’s Club, but he had nothing to defend there.

If Nadal takes over as No. 1 in July or August, he could have his old rival Roger Federer nipping at his heels by late summer’s US Open Series. Federer is currently in fifth place with 4,945 points.

Optimistic sports fans backed Murray to hold onto No. 1 for the year, according to a poll from UK sports giant Sky Sports.

The race will heat up with the summer, but there’s a lot of tennis to be played before the year-end No. 1 ranking gets decided.

Follow Jeremy on Twitter: @JeremyEckstein1